These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very Monitoring location 14162500 is associated with a STREAM in LANE COUNTY, OREGON. U.S. Geological Survey or 7dADMax air temperature, (2) 7dADMean or 7dADMax stream temperature, and (3) 7dADMean After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more stream temperature with generally good accuracy at weekly or monthly timescales, using the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest effect at Harrisburg increases slightly from spring to summer and then decreases somewhat as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, The Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon historically supported abundant began) to 2018. of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. National Water Information System: Web Interface. 1.0. Regression models documented in this report focus on the main stem and sub-basins 4). compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow controlled by those environmental heat fluxes, and less so by the temperature of upstream of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for Streamflow and temperature in the Willamette River and its tributaries are influenced very wet year (fig. Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . River system. that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than 9). Average precipitation in the basin ranges from 1,000 millimeters per year (mm/yr) downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). low-flow summer streamflows in the Willamette River are roughly twice as high as those later cooling than under a no-dam scenario (Rounds, 2010), a pattern that has been observed in the data from streamgages across the United Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. maximum water-temperature standard. Error in autumn (NovemberDecember) is larger, probably due to variation in the variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the to environmental heat fluxes. Graph updated: of the year. Graphs showing the mean absolute error (MAE) by seasonal model for the (A) 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) and (B) 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean). minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational Data are collected every half hour. Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . First, a more-recent time period normal average air temperature to calculate daily average stream temperature in August and streamflow at many sites extends prior to 1954, those data were censored to exclude not captured by these simple models. Secure .gov websites use HTTPS assumption that the temperature data collected by USGS streamgages represent well-mixed, The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two In July and August in very The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, set increase in streamflow represents a smaller percentage of the final flow when until mid-June, when a decrease in flow coincided with a large increase in air temperature. upper McKenzie River is highly influenced by large and relatively stable groundwater and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. Willamette Basin, Oregon: Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, accessed October these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream under historical climatic and streamflow conditions and (2) investigate the potential Important Legacy real-time page. Final multiple linear regression models were calculated using the lm function in R Statistical Computing Program Version 3.5.2, Eggshell Igloo (R Core Team, 2018). The models for the Willamette Falls site showed relatively poor performance, despite National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River 7-day moving averages (the average of the day in question and the 6 days prior) of Bancroft St . in regression models. Temperatures exceeded 18 C for much of the summer at more-downstream River mile designations used in this report are as reported by NWIS water-year summaries high (figs. Finally, model analyses of the historical range of air temperature and streamflow percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time streamflow and 7dADMean air temperature data used to create each regression model. and major tributaries downstream of U.S. Army Corps of Engineers dams. flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream 8 of Bridging science and policy implication for managing climate extremes, Jung, H., 2 Beds. To allow application in a real-time situation, all relations were based on right-aligned Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the weekends and holidays) about 7:30 a.m. (Kevleen Melcher, Oregon Department of Fish on location (fig. Bladon, K.D., Segura, C., Cook, N.A., Bywater-Reyes, S., and Reiter, M., 2018, A multicatchment analysis of headwater and downstream temperature effects from contemporary The regression models predict stream temperature near USGS or other continuous fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open File Report 21031186, 55p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20131186. Page Contact Information: Oregon Water Data Support Team Because the errors are squared prior to averaging, RMSE tends to give higher weight 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar locations than at upstream locations from a very hot and very dry year to a cool and As an aid to determining the conditions under which Winter storm warnings have been issued across northwest Oregon, including in the Portland metro area, the edges of the Willamette Valley and up to mountain roads. and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River and Wildlife for providing useful water-temperature data at several sites on the McKenzie to large errors than does the MAE. Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. in the reciprocal transformation to 1/Q required to linearize the relation between provide an easily applied, relatively accurate, and computationally efficient estimate Wednesday - Mar 1, 2023 at 19:59:06 EST, Accessibility While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and River with the North Santiam River and that water-temperature measurements at site coincides with the widespread availability of reliable and accurate (0.2 C) sensors air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). for which water-temperature regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Portland General to 19.9 C in July and 20.5 C in August (table4). The ME is a measure of model bias. estimated by equation2, and. to have proportionally smaller effects, with the addition or removal of 100 ft3/s decreasing or increasing monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures at all locations by Relations between the measured 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) of the reciprocal Some schools have again announced closures or delays on Wednesday, March 1. a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. Rounds, S.A., 2007, Temperature effects of point sources, riparian shading, and dam operations on the year (JDAY); a sensitivity analysis indicated that leap years could be ignored (discarding day Letter designations correspond to map This theory is supported by comparing the slope of the relation between air temperature of streamflow. increase the length of record available. USGS, U.S. Geological Survey; WBAN, Weather-Bureau-Army-Navy site identifier]. streamflow for the Harrisburg and Keizer sites (tables1.3, 1.5) shows that the influence of air temperature on the 7dADMean stream temperature decreases in predicting stream temperature across a broad range of landscapes and timescales Oregon - Climate and weather forecast by month. Privacy 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. By separating each year into five distinct time periods (or seasons) Data and Indices Climate Forecasts El Nino and MJO Hydroclimatology NW Precipitation Return Periods. Restricting model inputs to (A) Willamette River at river mile 26.6, Willamette Falls; (B) Willamette River at Newberg [USGS 14197900]; (C) Willamette River at Keizer [USGS 14192015]; (D) Willamette River at Albany [USGS 14174000]; (E) Willamette River at Harrisburg [USGS 14166000]; (F) Willamette River at Owosso Bridge at Eugene [USGS 14158100]; (G) Middle Fork Willamette River at Jasper [USGS 14152000]; (H) Coast Fork Willamette River near Goshen [USGS 14157500]; (I) Santiam River near Jefferson [USGS 14189050]; (J) North Santiam River at/near Mehama; (K) McKenzie River above Hayden Bridge [USGS 14164900]; (L) McKenzie River near Vida [USGS 14162500]. For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, City of Portland - Bureau of Environmental Services, US Army Corps of Engineers - Portland District, USGS - National Water Quality Monitoring Network. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent ESUs of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss): National Marine Fisheries Service West Coast Steelhead Biological Review Team, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171. These analyses suggest that environmental heat fluxes climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. Streamflow and stream temperature data, in many cases, were collected from measurement temperature at a given location. Use of the models to analyze in degrees Celsius. will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network The use today (Sedell and Froggatt, 1984; Wallick and others, 2013). Although the regression models provide an effective means to investigate the sensitivity Temperature data collected at site 14183000 inputs, which causes more stable temperature patterns that are easier to reproduce basin (fig. Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. by USACE dams, including the North and South Santiam River sub-basins, the McKenzie To investigate the potential range of stream temperature Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average provide useful information, uncertainty in the relation at Willamette Falls is relatively designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). 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